Adobe Inc.
ADBEPrice Projections & Market Scenarios
End of 2026 Target
Projected closing price (Bubble Scenario)
Yearly Price Targets (2025-2030)
| Year | Forecast Price | Growth vs Today |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $205.08 | -19% |
| 2027 | $141.25 | -44% |
| 2028 | $150.00 | -40% |
| 2029 | $166.50 | -34% |
| 2030 | $182.00 | -28% |
| 2031 | $198.50 | -21% |
Risk Analysis (Bubble)
The "AI Bubble" model assumes an unsustainable price acceleration through 2026, driven by retail hype, followed by a sharp correction in 2027 as revenue fails to match Capex.
AnalysisLive
Adobe’s latest quarter showed revenue of $6.76B, with FY2026 guidance raised to $26.576B-$26.626B and non-GAAP EPS guided to $24.45-$24.50, while Q4 revenue guidance of $6.80B-$6.85B came in slightly below the analyst estimate cited by Reuters5[6]. Street sentiment is mixed but still constructive overall, with recent targets ranging from $240 to $315 and a reported average target around $277.81, implying the stock is near fair value to modestly undervalued at the current price of $252.23124[7][11][14].
Key Insights
- •Adobe’s FY2026 guidance implies continued double-digit growth in ARR and revenue even after a softer Q4 outlook, which supports the base-case recovery path3[6].
- •Analyst dispersion is wide, with bearish calls around $240 and bullish calls up to $315, reflecting uncertainty around AI monetization and growth re-acceleration124[11][13][14].
- •The bubble scenario assumes valuation compression and a severe reset similar to a post-bubble de-rating, while the linear scenario assumes Adobe compounds from current levels as AI features gradually lift conversion and subscription growth35[6].