International Business Machines Corporation
IBMPrice Projections & Market Scenarios
Current Price
$234.32
LinearAI Bubble
End of 2026 Target
Projected closing price (Bubble Scenario)
$205
-12% Growth
Yearly Price Targets (2025-2030)
| Year | Forecast Price | Growth vs Today |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $205.00 | -12% |
| 2027 | $140.00 | -40% |
| 2028 | $150.00 | -36% |
| 2029 | $165.00 | -29% |
| 2030 | $182.00 | -22% |
| 2031 | $198.00 | -15% |
Risk Analysis (Bubble)
The "AI Bubble" model assumes an unsustainable price acceleration through 2026, driven by retail hype, followed by a sharp correction in 2027 as revenue fails to match Capex.
StabilityHigh Risk
AnalysisLive
Confidence62%
IBM’s latest reported Q2 2026 results showed adjusted EPS of $2.93 and 2026 constant-currency revenue growth guidance trimmed to 4%–5%, while free cash flow is still expected to rise by about $1 billion year over year1[15]. Street sentiment remains moderately positive with a consensus target around $265.40 and a Moderate Buy rating, though recent analyst notes also show target cuts such as Bernstein’s move to $230, reflecting execution and mix concerns5[8][12].
Key Insights
- •IBM’s current analyst consensus target is about $265.40, implying roughly 13% upside from the current price, which supports a constructive but not aggressive baseline view5[9][12].
- •Consensus estimates still call for IBM to grow earnings and revenue in 2026-2027, with one source citing revenue growth of about 4.5% annually and earnings growth of about 5.8% annually[10][13].
- •IBM’s 2026 outlook is anchored by software growth of 6%–8%, low-single-digit infrastructure growth, and low-to-mid-single-digit consulting growth, but the recent revenue miss and guidance trim create downside risk if AI monetization or deal timing weakens further14[15].
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