Tesla, Inc.
TSLAPrice Projections & Market Scenarios
End of 2026 Target
Projected closing price (Bubble Scenario)
Yearly Price Targets (2025-2030)
| Year | Forecast Price | Growth vs Today |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $282.50 | -17% |
| 2027 | $185.00 | -46% |
| 2028 | $205.00 | -40% |
| 2029 | $240.00 | -30% |
| 2030 | $285.00 | -17% |
| 2031 | $330.00 | -4% |
Risk Analysis (Bubble)
The "AI Bubble" model assumes an unsustainable price acceleration through 2026, driven by retail hype, followed by a sharp correction in 2027 as revenue fails to match Capex.
AnalysisLive
Wall Street’s latest TSLA 12-month targets cluster around the low-$400s, with a consensus near $401.74 to $403 and a wide range that includes bears below $30 and bulls up to $600123. Recent analyst actions remain mixed but generally cautious-to-positive, including TD Cowen’s $460 target and Morgan Stanley/UBS cuts into the $385-$400 area, while Tesla’s Q2 2026 update showed $28.24 billion of revenue, $0.33 EPS, negative $1.1 billion free cash flow, and full-year capex guidance above $25 billion tied to robotaxi, AI compute, and Optimus expansion[6][11][15].
Key Insights
- •Consensus analyst targets imply modest upside from the current $342.27 price, with an average around $401.74 and a Hold rating, which supports a base-case forecast in the mid-$300s to $400s near term12[8].
- •Tesla’s latest quarter combined solid revenue with weak free cash flow and heavy capex, signaling execution risk even as management invests aggressively in autonomy and AI infrastructure[15].
- •The analyst range is unusually wide, which justifies a bifurcated model: a deep drawdown if AI/valuation enthusiasm breaks, or a steady re-rating if Tesla converts autonomy and software catalysts into sustained earnings growth1[6][11].