ChatGPT Launch Correlates with Job Decline, Stock Surge

Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in late 2022, the global labor and stock markets have experienced significant changes. Job openings in the US and other major economies have decreased by nearly 30%, while major stock indices have surged by about 70%. These trends appear linked, with many speculating that automation is displacing workers, especially in white-collar roles. However, a closer examination reveals that macroeconomic forces, not AI, are the primary drivers of these shifts.

The Rise of ChatGPT and Its Economic Footprint

ChatGPT’s launch marked a significant moment in AI adoption. By September 2025, the platform had over 800 million weekly active users, becoming one of the fastest-growing applications in history. Its integration into business processes has been swift, with 92% of Fortune 100 companies using ChatGPT. OpenAI’s revenue reached a $10 billion annual run rate by mid-2025, with a potential IPO valuation as high as $1 trillion.

Despite rapid adoption, the direct impact of ChatGPT on the labor market is less clear than headlines suggest. While fears of mass job displacement have dominated discourse, actual employment data paints a more complex picture.

Labor Market Dynamics: AI vs. Macroeconomic Forces

The Job Openings Plunge

Since ChatGPT’s debut, US job openings have fallen by roughly 30%, particularly in sectors with high AI adoption like tech and finance. Economists caution against attributing this solely to AI. Broader economic trends, including higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand, have significantly influenced the labor market.

Research indicates that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption attributable to ChatGPT. While the occupational mix is changing, the overall effect on employment levels remains modest compared to macroeconomic shifts.

The Stock Market Surge

Global stock markets have rallied, with the S&P 500 and other indices up approximately 70% since late 2022. This surge is driven by:

AI Hype: Investor enthusiasm for AI-related stocks.
Earnings Growth: Improved margins and productivity gains linked to AI.
Macroeconomic Stability: Stabilized markets and rebounded corporate earnings.

The stock market’s performance reflects optimism about AI’s long-term potential, but it also responds to broader economic conditions.

The Economist’s Perspective: AI Is Not the Primary Culprit

Several economists argue that the recent labor market downturn is not primarily due to automation. They point to traditional business cycles and policy decisions as the main culprits. Labor market analyses show that while AI is altering job types, it has not caused widespread displacement.

The anxiety surrounding AI mirrors earlier fears about technological disruption. Historically, technologies like computers took years to transform markets, ultimately benefiting productivity and job creation. Early signs suggest AI may follow a similar path.

Context and Implications

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Effects

In the short term, ChatGPT and similar tools augment rather than replace human workers. Industries with high AI adoption see financial impacts from AI-assisted decision-making, but these gains are not yet translating into large-scale job losses.

Looking ahead, AI’s long-term implications for the labor market remain uncertain. Some roles are at higher risk of automation, but technological progress also creates new industries and job categories.

The Broader Economic Picture

The current economic environment is shaped by technological innovation, monetary policy, and shifting consumer behavior. While AI is a powerful change driver, it operates within a complex interplay of factors that will determine future labor and financial market trajectories.

Conclusion

The launch of ChatGPT coincided with a decline in job openings and a rally in stock prices. However, attributing these trends solely to AI oversimplifies the economic landscape. While AI transforms business processes, traditional macroeconomic factors are the primary drivers of recent labor market shifts. The true test of AI’s impact on employment will unfold over the next decade as businesses and workers adapt to technological change.